Weekly Market Commentary 12/1/25

The major markets closed the truncated holiday week higher. The turnaround last week was substantial and brought the three major domestic indices back above their 50-day moving averages. Moreover, the gains in the domestic market took the S&P 500 to its highest weekly return since May of this year.

The chances of a Fed funds rate cut in December increased last week. The week prior, markets briefly shifted towards expecting the rates to stay at the 3.75 to 4% range after the final Fed meeting of the year. But by the close on Friday, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December climbed back above 80%.

The rally last week was broad as all 11 sectors managed to close higher for the week, solidifying year-to- date gains in all the sectors, at least for the time being. All nine style boxes also managed to close positive with the greatest gain spanning from small cap value to large cap growth.

The week closed out the month of November and managed to bring enough positive performance that the month was still able to close higher. As it stands now, only February, March, and April are the down months for 2025. December of 2024 did see a down note for last year, but hopefully investors will remain positive till the end of this year.