As we look to the remaining months of the year, the events of the first half are helpful to reinforce the perspective and humility needed when providing any sort of “outlook” on future events.
On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law, making permanent certain tax cuts originally enacted in 2017 that were set to expire, extending others and adding new tax cut provisions. While the bill was widely anticipated to pass, it removed one factor of uncertainty for investors and was generally bullish overall.
As the Trump administration started enacting its policies, investors appeared to rethink their bullishness. By mid-February, U.S. large caps reached their near-term peak and started to trend lower.